Efficient Research – Growth Under Severe Pressure

The weak third quarter GDP figure confirms that economic activity is slowing at a serious pace, but also indicates that, for now, this weakness is limited to certain sectors. The discrepancy between sub-sectors complicates forecasting but could help SA to not enter into a technical recession. What seems clear however is that 2009 is going to be a tougher year and we expect growth to drop from around 3.0% y/y in 2008 to 1.0% y/y in 2009. As general economic activity slows, future consumer and business activity (and confidence) will remain low which limits the prospects of job creation. Hopefully, some monetary easing during 2009 and the prospects of the 2010 World Cup could help in spurring optimism, while we watch the global economic turmoil play out.”  Read the rest of this entry……